Shanahan counter-spun

Let's take this article by Dennis Shanahan, keep the facts the same but spin them a little differently.

Tony Abbott desperate to crush Julia Gillard

TONY Abbott is so desperate for a Labor leadership change he can taste it.

The Opposition Leader and his colleagues are doing everything they can to turn the longest, worst period of polling for any modern federal government into the end of Julia Gillard.

There are two reasons for Abbott's intensity: first, he wants to focus people's frustrations onto Gillard rather than himself; and, second, he fears Kevin Rudd.

As a result of the latest Newspoll - Labor's primary vote was a record low 26 per cent and has been under 30 per cent for three months, the same period that Abbott has been preferred prime minister - Liberals and some Labor MPs believe Gillard's leadership is terminal.

Abbott's attitude is to knock over an opponent whenever possible, but the fact that Gillard is still standing is an indictment of his supposedly ferocious political skills, and makes her look strong. His main aim is to spark an election he would be certain to win on the current polling, but none of the independents can bear the man.

There is an added reason for Abbott's wish to act as soon as possible against Gillard, which includes the short-term opportunism of assisting the snuffing-out of offshore processing of asylum-seekers.

Abbott, like many Liberal MPs and more than the handful of Labor MPs who are die-hard Rudd supporters, believes Rudd is the only logical choice to replace Gillard, and the only one who can save once-safe Labor seats.

Logic would suggest that Abbott would want to keep Gillard in the Prime Ministership for as long as possible. Yet, the longer Julia Gillard stays where she is, the worse it is for Abbott. Questions must be asked about Abbott's inability in blocking any Labor legislation, in knocking off any ministers (or even Craig Thomson), or persuading Labor to cauterise a supposedly unpopular Prime Minister.

Legendary rugby league commentator Rex Mossop once complained that a player was so ineffective that he "couldn't knock a sick girl off a toilet": a description so harsh it becomes weird, but one which Abbott's late constituent might apply to the current Liberal leader.

Rudd's continuing popularity, his previous preference as prime minister over Abbott, his Queensland connections and a sympathy vote all worry the Liberal leader. Rudd had it all over Abbott 18 months ago, and for all his flaws Rudd is considerably more assiduous in policy development than the supposedly tough Abbott.

But Abbott's biggest fear about Rudd is that the former prime minister will be held back as a last-minute change and go to an election before a second honeymoon wears off.

If Abbott has to face Rudd, he wants time to remind voters why they were turning off the former prime minister before he was dumped by his colleagues. In turn, Rudd would have little trouble pointing out to voters why they have never really warmed to Abbott.